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Nov 04

Week 9: my pics against the spread… games that matter

This is a new feature I will put out every week sometime on Friday.  I don’t at this time wager at all, but that is something that may change in the near future.

Let’s get to it!

Seattle at Dallas (Seattle +12.5)

I am taking the Seahawks to cover in this game, but not to win.  12.5 points is too big.  I expect Tavaris Jackson to start even if his pectoral injury may be a little sore going in.  He played last week in a loss after Charlie Whitehurst started.  The Cowboys are staggering after a nasty loss in Philly and will be energized, but the Hawks D is up for the challenge.  Tony Romo has been shaky all year long.  Dallas wins 24-17.

Atlanta at Indy (Atlanta – 7)

I picked the Falcons to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.  Looks like that was ill advised.  In this game, there is no question.  The Falcons are starting to look for real as they thumped the Detriot Lions 23-16 in their last game.  Matty “Ice” Ryan is coming off a bye and will be prepared to take down the Colts.  The only thing I see the Colts have this year is Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rushing the passer which they have been able to do much of when trailing.  Atlanta takes this one easy 31-13.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (New Orleans – 7.5)

I know that the Bucs beat the Saints earlier in the year, but at this point in time, Josh Freeman is not playing well, with only 7 TDs and 10 INTs on the year.  LaGarrette Blount is returning from his knee injury but I don’t see him being very effective his first week back.  Both these teams are coming off of losses, the Bucs to the Bears two weeks ago and the Saints to the Rams last week… Umm the Saints are gonna be pissed.  They are at home.  They will kick some behind this week.  Saints have every reason to knock around the Bucs this week and show who is boss in the NFC South. Saints win 30-17.

Cleveland at Houston (Houston -10.5)

At first I figured this line is too big for this game.  Houston is at home, and I believe they are a better team.  I was thinking about the defense the Browns have put up including a #2 ranked passing D.  I thought about Andre Johnson who might return this week… I thought about having RB Peyton Hillis back for the Browns.  Then I realized the Browns are likely to still be without Hillis and WR Mohamed Massaquoi. Houston is coming off two straight games without allowing 200 yards of total offense. Granted those two wins were against Jacksonville and Tennessee, but looking at the Brown’s injuries, their offense isn’t much better.  Texans win 27-13.

 

New Jersey Jets at Buffalo (Buffalo -1)

I’m taking the New York team here.  (anybody notice how I disrespected the jets there?)  The Bills have been the over-achieving team all year… With all Rex Ryan’s tantrums and the way he and his team have shown dysfunctionality this year, I like the Bills.  Bills win 27-17.

Miami at Kansas City (Kansas City -5)

Miami will have a new QB by the name of Andrew Luck next year.  Until then, I’m not picking them on the road, at home, to beat the spread, or in the unlikely scenario that they might be favored against the Colts (who they do not play this year.)  SO NO DOLPHIN SAFE PICKS IN 2011!  I’ve got Kansas City 24-9.

San Francisco at Washington DC (San Francisco -3.5)

Do I really have to get into this?  There is no trap game for the Niners this year.  This is a hungry team.  A member of the Redskins D was quoted on how to stop the Niners.  His answer… #1 Stop Gore, #2…. Stop Gore and that’s i… no that’s really not it… I think that was London Fletcher but can’t find it now.  Was a feature story on 95.7 the game on Thursday of this week.  The Redskins should know their offense is so dysfunctional that they can’t talk.  Not only can they not talk, they cannot play. They are using QB John Beck who has never won a game.  They are using 2nd and 3rd string runningbacks.  Their starting WR is out.  Their starting TE is out.  Their backup TE might not play due to injury.  The Shannahans are being questioned about their play calling.  To top it off, they were shut out last week by the Bills who are not known for their defense.  If you are going to talk the talk, you’d better be able to walk the walk.  All good, the Niners will shove a Frank Gore cleat so far up their butts they will taste the sod grass.  No big deal for Washington, just another team that will leave the Skins with a bad taste in their mouth.  Niners win on the road in the Eastern time zone for the fourth time this season and cover easily 24-9.  LOCK OF THE WEEK.

New York Giants at New England (New York +8)

This is my upset of the week… Eli Manning is playing easily as well as Tom Brady this year.  Manning is 156-241, 2127 yds, 13 tds, 5 ints.  Brady is 184-272, 2361 yds, 18 tds, 8 ints.  Even though the Giants have injuries to key players such as RB Ahmad Bradshaw, DE Osi Umenyiora, and WR Hakeem Knicks, the Giants have the heart and the skill to come into Boston and take down the Pats.  I will give the Giants a slim victory as the Pats defense is horrid.  Giants 21-20.

St. Louis at Arizona (St. Louis +3.5)

This is looking like a game where two struggling starting QBs will be watching from the sidelines.  Sam Bradford was replaced last week by A. J. Feeley who amazingly beat Drew Brees.  The Cardinals’ Kevin Kolb is battling turf toe and John Skelton could get the start.  This leads to a matchup between RBs Steven Johnson of the Rams and Beanie Wells of the Cardinals.  I am also looking at new WR Brandon Lloyd continuing to make an impact.  The Rams have been clicking too well on offense since Johnson.  Without Kolb, the Cardinals have no chance.  Rams cover, and win in Arizona 21-20.

Cincinnati at Tennessee (Cincy +3)

The Bengals defense is just too strong.  Without Chris Johnson playing well and with 2nd best run d and the 9th best pass d, Matt Hasselbeck will not do enough to win the game.  The Titans are nothing special this year especially as they are still without WR Kenny Britt. Cincinnati wins 20-17 on the road.

Oakland at Denver (Oakland -7)

The Raiders plan is to run Michael Bush and Taiwan Jones around the edges at Elvis Dumerville and Von Miller.  If I am wrong, they are crazier than I think they are. Carson Palmer will find openings in the Bronco’s cover scheme as Champ Bailey is likely to jam receivers on the line of scrimmage without being able to run with them. The Raiders cannot afford to ask Palmer to throw for much more than half the offensive plays at this stage, even against an aging Broncos secondary.  Brian Dawkins will be downfield covering and still knows how to read the QB.  If Palmer does not see that his receiver has beaten the cover man, he needs to check down.  Use Bush and Jones in the short passing game as needed.  Hmm Hugh Jackson was an OC with Palmer in Cincy for years, hopefully they can find the old rhythm that they were so good at years ago.  Oh and Tim Tebow QBs for the other team.  Basically a strangled wildcat formation all day.  Oakland wins in Denver 17-10.

Green Bay at San Diego (Green Bay – 5.5)

One of the most consistently productive teams in the NFL faces one of the most consistently destructive teams in the last few weeks.  This line is not large enough. The Chargers will not be the team to surprise the Pack this year.  Green Bay continue their march to an undefeated season with a 30-20 win.

Baltimore at Pittsburg (Pittsburg -3.5)

Ben Rothlisberger vs Joe Flacco is what this game comes down to. The week 1 drubbing the Ravens gave the Steelers will come back to haunt the Ravens now that they are playing flat.  After the Ravens almost lost to the Cardinals and the week before dropped one to the Jaguars, they will continue their slide.  Steelers will make this a statement game and may even knock Ray Rice out of the game.  Pittsburg by double digits…33-17.

MONDAY NIGHT – Chicago at Philedelphia (Phlly -7)

The last time the Bears lost, they lost to an athletic, aggressive, fast team much like the team they play this week.  They lost to a QB who had a TD scoring machine.  They lost to a small, young, speedy RB they couldn’t keep up with.  They lost to a team with a nasty D Line that confused Jay Cutler.

This week, they play another team on a high with dynamic QB Michael Vick who had 5 of his 6 pass catchers average over 10 yards a catch over the Cowboys.  The Eagles RB seemed to be flying like an eagle as LeSean McCoy ran for 185 yards on the day for an average of 6.2 yards a carry and scored 2 TDs.

Philly had 4 sacks on Romo and picked him off one time (Asomugha).  Justin Babin accounted for 2 sacks on his own.

I like Philadelphia to confuse Chicago and continue to jell.  Philadelphia 28-17 at home.

 

 

 

 

 

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